Atlantic Yards/Pacific Park in 2025: Acceleration Time? (Related Enters, Project Supersized?)
Will "community engagement" affect scale, affordability? Will BSE Global pay for the arena plaza? BSE's Brooklyn "ecosystem" should swell. What's the surprise?
As I wrote in my 2024 retrospectives (short version, long version), it was a deceptively quiet year, as a foreclosure did not quite lead to a new developer for six railyard towers. However, plans to supersize those towers, as well as a plan for giant towers at Site 5, did emerge, portending significant future changes.
Moreover, a valuable new investment in BSE Global, from the Koch family (of right-wing notoriety), rewarded Joe and Clara Wu Tsai with cash for a new Brooklyn "ecosystem"of media and entertainment, including Brooklyn Magazine (er, BKMag), the retail space at the Williamsburgh Bank tower, and more yet to be revealed, such as a hotel.
So 2025 should be a significant year for the project. In other words, if 2024 seemed "crunch time" for Pacific Park, as The Real Deal declared, now it really is.
Presumably the joint venture involving Related Companies will be approved by Empire State Development, the state authority that oversees/shepherds the project, to take over the six railyard sites, B5-B10, in a foreclosure process that started in late 2023. Those sites were collateral for the EB-5 loans, made by immigrant investors, that developer Greenland USA mostly didn’t repay.
What might Related want? Surely it aims to extend deadlines to complete 876 affordable housing units, as well as additional valuable buildable square footage, as Greenland USA sought in 2023, illustrated above.
The next questions: what justifies that, and is there a limit?
Whatever an increase, what might New York State, and the public at large, demand reciprocally, such as more units of affordable housing, and more deeply affordable units?
Could Atlantic Yards, seemingly about halfway complete, at least in terms of unit count, with 3,212 apartments, build not merely 6,430 total, as approved, but add nearly 2,700 more? What would that look like?
Expansion at Site 5
Also, ESD likely will pursue a plan it's already agreed to support: to transfer the bulk of the unbuilt flagship tower (B1, aka “Miss Brooklyn), once slated to loom over the arena, across Flatbush Avenue to Site 5, longtime home to the big-box stores P.C. Richard and the now-closed Modell’s.
That would enable a giant, two-tower project far larger than the building approved in 2006 or even the two-tower plan floated in 2015-16. It would add LED signage, on top of the two major signage opportunities at the arena: the oculus and the LED “wall” over the arena doors, the latter added under Tsai.
Again, what’s the justification? Whatever the increase, what’s the reciprocal public benefit?
Public engagement
Before all that, we should see state-sponsored "community engagement" to gain feedback, and buy-in, from the interest groups and fractional amount of people still paying attention.
That might not only ventilate concerns about scale, affordable housing and open space, but also the impacts of arena operations and even--as we learned recently--heavy winds that exacerbate the cold and should prompt reconsideration of building design, Maybe also the noisy dog run adjacent to the West Tower of 595 Dean.
As the May 2025 deadline for to deliver 876 more affordable units approaches, expect an effort to extend that, as New York State surely doesn't want to impose the required $2,000/month fines for each missing unit. Also expect BrooklynSpeaks, the coalition that negotiated that penalty in 2014, to press to uphold it, likely with support from some local elected officials.
The renegotiation?
"Empire State Development is focused on the successful buildout and completion of this project," we were told a year ago.
Keep in mind that Gov. Kathy Hochul is running for re-election in 2026 and surely wants a "win," a path forward with new housing.
Also note the YIMBY (Yes In My Back Yard) trend, which led to the City Council passing the "City of Yes" rezoning, and more. That should bring support for the astounding efforts to supersize the project, trade-offs be damned.
Greenland, which still controls Site 5 and the B1 bulk, is eager to move forward, surely with a partner (or selling rights completely). After all, its Shanghai-based parent, Greenland Holdings, is struggling financially.
The giveback?
What might the public get in response? Likely, from the 2023 proposals that surfaced last year, promises of more affordable housing.
The devil, though, is in the details: how affordable, and how soon? After all, delays can be costly. Also: should the provision of new affordable housing justify any increase in scale, or is there a limit?
Also expect proposals for more open space, including at Site 5 (we already got a hint) and even at sites B6 and B7 (another hint), as shown above.
New configuration?
If the Related joint venture, involving the Fortress Investment Group and an affiliate of the U.S. Immigration Fund (the "regional center" that recruited EB-5 investors and, thanks to advantageous contract language, controls their investment), moves forward on the six railyard sites and Greenland controls the other two sites, that adds a complication.
Who'd be the project's master developer? How will contracts be revised? How will the affordable housing obligation be parceled out? Presumably contracts are being renegotiated, but that deserves sunlight.
The valuable plaza
It's glaring, as I've pointed out, that the arena operator BSE Global made a huge profit by selling a slice of the company (which also includes the Brooklyn Nets, New York Liberty, and more), and looks to lock in advantage by getting the plaza without any reciprocal obligation or payment.
What does the arena company owe its neighbors? Should it not, at the least, inform them of every event, including private ones, that might be potentially disruptive?
Should not BSE Global, in exchange for the plaza, fund a quality-of-life enforcement unit, as BrooklynSpeaks has suggested? Sure, but how make sure that it actually enforces?
The arena survives on widespread flouting of laws against idling and illegal standing/parking, and special events--like ones last year for a Catholic group and a Jewish group--can wreak havoc with double-parking buses.
Should not BSE Global, in exchange for the plaza, be asked for far more?
New construction?
Last August, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing an unnamed source, "If all goes well, Related could resume construction on the site as soon as the end of 2025."
That seems unlikely, since all has not gone well--or, at least not well enough to hasten project paperwork toward public progress in 2024.
If and when the platform does start, the first railyard block--bounded by Sixth and Carlton avenues, and by Atlantic Avenue and Pacific Street--would be surrounded by fencing, constraining traffic and eliminating parking. The B5 tower could start a year later, at least according to previous plans.
Neighborhood impacts
As the new public school campus at the base of the B15 tower, 662 Pacific Street, ramps up, let's see if it creates any conflicts or complications. As I wrote, 2024 was fairly quiet.
Starting just this week: sewer and water main installation on Dean Street between Sixth and Carlton avenues, which was supposed to start last year. That could be significantly disruptive.
Retail changes
As I wrote, 2024 was a big year for project retail, with various long-vacant parcels finally getting tenants. Two less attractive (for now) spaces, at 550 Vanderbilt and 535 Carlton flanking the future open space, remain.
The 604 Pacific building, once said to house a Walgreens, is finally under renovation, but the Triangle Building at Flatbush Avenue, once said to house a Rihanna lingerie shop, looks destined to remain only a billboard.
Open space oversight
Significant questions remain about the makeup and accountability of the Pacific Park Conservancy, which I last year described as a "phantom" but finally emerged—slightly.
Will the new phone number (a voice mail) be made public at the open space entrance? Will a representative come to a public meeting? Will Community Boards 6 and 8, as well as the NYC Parks Department, supply a representative?
Most importantly, will they allot some of their budget to physical improvements--trees? barrier?--that might tamp down the noise from the dog run?
The Brooklyn "ecosystem"
Expect BSE Global to move forward with its Brooklyn "ecosystem," expanding BK Mag into a broader media endeavor, launching their Brooklyn Basketball youth program at the shuttered Modell's store, and programming events--retail sales? performances? high-roller exclusives?--at the retail condo in the base of the Williamsburgh Bank tower.
After all, they have a lot of new (Koch) money to work with.
Also under consideration: a hotel (part of the Site 5 plans?), a comedy tour (at the Brooklyn Paramount, of which BSE owns a stake?), and more. It's all branding.
The Nets and the Liberty
The Brooklyn Nets, not atypically, are in flux, with new Coach Jordi Fernandez aiming to wring the most out of the personnel on hand, leading to some surprising victories, while General Manager Sean Marks trades away veterans, positioning (aka “tanking”) the Nets for a top three pick in the loaded 2025 NBA Draft.
However, even the worst teams can’t game the draft lottery, so there are no guarantees. Marks also has draft capital to deploy in trades, and cap space (budget) to sign marquee free agents.
Bottom line: we'll see. The Nets continue to (reportedly) draw well, though it's unclear how many tickets are distributed for free or at a discount.
The New York Liberty are riding high after a 2024 WNBA championship and should return with their squad pretty much intact. So they have a good chance to repeat, and to keep building an audience, despite ever-rising ticket prices.
Accountability questions
The project's limited accountability was variable in 2024, with more meetings of the (purportedly) advisory Atlantic Yards Community Development Corporation--but one, as I reported, in which ESD officials sat silently as the Directors debated a potential plan for Site 5, failing to disclose that ESD had already blessed a plan.
After a long delay, a Quality of Life meeting, once bimonthly, resurfaced, but the online format stymied transparency and accountability.
Those meetings deserve more sunlight in 2025.
As I wrote last year, BrooklynSpeaks, led by a handful of people, has the ear of local elected officials, and should advocate, as I reported in October, for more deeply affordable housing and for the arena operator to fund monitors.
One question: would they give the developer a pass on scale, for example endorsing the plan for Site 5 as long as there's more affordability.
As I wrote last year, interest in the project may not be galvanized until the daily newspapers cover the issue--hey, New York Times?--and/or more elected officials take notice.
Let's see if tenants at 38 Sixth Avenue, who went to court to force their landlord, Avanath Capital, to improve building conditions, make more progress.
Beyond the footprint
The Atlantic Avenue Mixed-Use Project (AAMUP), the plan to rezone the area just east of Vanderbilt Avenue, the eastern end of the Atlantic Yards footprint, with not only higher densities but also civic investments, including open space and road improvements, should finally pass, and deliver new buildings, new promises, and new transactions.
Two large buildings on Atlantic Avenue, the product of spot rezonings, have risen 17 stories and should get closer to completion. Another, 840 Atlantic, remains stalled in court.
What's the 2025 surprise?
There's always a surprise with this project.
A new mayor, replacing the indicted (to be convicted or acquitted?) Eric Adams, with a very tainted entourage, may emerge with a desire to cut some ribbons and thus hasten a stalled project, in collaboration with a governor bent on re-election.
In 2024, I wondered, could Greenland USA walk away completely and a new master developer emerge? Well, not quite, but Related emerged, and Site 5 changes surfaced fully cooked.
The 2025 surprise--well, in detail if not concept--might be a new Development Agreement and hybrid set of obligations for the new developers, including Related’s joint venture and, perhaps, Greenland's incoming partner on Site 5.
Could Related, as I've predicted, change the name of the project? (I've suggested "Brooklyn Central.") I wouldn’t be shocked.
BSE Global’s sale of a stake to the Koch family, and the new investment into the Brooklyn "ecosystem," was a 2024 surprise. So we shouldn’t be shocked—but maybe still surprised—if BSE Global makes a bigger splash by expanding its media effort, promoting new events, and perhaps acquiring more property
Behind closed doors
As I wrote last year, the surprise should not be that key project changes get decided behind closed doors. Or that accountability structures get set up with only facial transparency.
However, that's been the pattern.